Marketing Forecast from Ad-ology

More retailers are enhancing their e-commerce navigation tools, and also are more focused on mobile commerce and social media than a year ago, according to new data from The E-tailing Group. In addition, retailers are making moves to set themselves apart from the competition beyond a reliance on promotional tactics. To that end, retailers are highlighting particular brand offerings, exclusive products or the latest trends as a primary means to differentiate themselves. Mobile strategies are advancing quickly, too.

Online fraud is a growing concern among web users, according to a new survey released recently by the Ponemon Institute and ThreatMetrix. Results showed that 85% of survey respondents reported being worried and dissatisfied with the level of protection online businesses are providing to stop fraudsters today, which is up 5% from a 2009 Ponemon study that asked the same question. Based on survey findings, consumers have a positive perception about companies that use authentication and fraud detection tools to prevent online fraud. Fifty-six percent of consumers even indicated they are ‘more willing’ to shop or browse an online business if they know that company is taking specific measures toward combating fraud.

Rising gasoline prices may be benefiting the online retail sector. According to an estimate released recently by MasterCard Advisors, online spending in March increased 16.1% year over year, the fifth straight month of double-digit growth for e-commerce. By contrast, total apparel sales, which includes purchases made in bricks-and-mortar stores, increased 4.4% in March. Industry analysts speculate the double-digit growth and consecutive gains are being fueled in part by high gas prices as more consumers are cutting down on trips to the mall. Retail gasoline prices are continuing to rise, driven by volatility in oil markets amid the crisis in the Middle East, the SpendingPulse report shows.

According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. retail e-commerce sales reached $165.4 billion in 2010, for 14.8% growth over 2009. This represented a strong comeback for online retail after the recession, and healthy growth is predicted to continue throughout 2011. According to eMarketer, two major trends will continue to fuel online buying growth: mobile e-commerce and daily deal sites like Groupon. As e-commerce sales rise, so will the number of Americans contributing to that total. By 2015, 170.3 million people, or 76.3% of the online population, will make a purchase on the web.

Online retail in the U.S. is expected to continue on a double-digit growth trajectory over the next five years, according to a new forecast from Forrester Research. The independent research firm predicts that U.S. e-commerce spending will reach $278.9 billion by 2015. Forrester’s forecast is based on a 10% compound annual growth rate through 2015, as well as the continuation of several key trends, including the ubiquity of consumer Web usage; their increased familiarity with — and preference for — online shopping; and ever-better e-commerce user experiences. Forrester also credits new online shopping models — and “flash sales” and “daily deal” services in particular — with continuing to generate excitement among shoppers.

As e-commerce continues to impact consumer shopping, analysts expect some sales channels to suffer more than others when it comes to the CPG category. Specifically, between now and 2015, Nielsen analysts are looking for supercenters and e-commerce sites to increase their dollar share of total channel sales by 5 points. These changes also suggest that marketing budgets for CPG are likely to change.