Marketing Forecast from Ad-ology

Though consumers continue to watch TV in record numbers, TV station operators are expected to end 2009 with another drop in revenue. This latest trend in lower industry revenue began in 2006 when TV stations recorded $22.8 billion in sales. The 2009 expected total revenue of $15.6 billion is a 22.4% drop from 2008. BIA/Kelsey analysts note that this level is comparable to what the industry earned in the mid-1990s.

Last week I highlighted WebVisible’s report on the increased use of search marketing by small businesses. Another research concern, VerticalResponse also reported that search engine marketing will be a key 2010 expenditure for smaller operators. And according to VerticalResponse, small business owners are planning a number of budget cuts to traditional media formats next year.

Small business owners are hoping to engage customers in new ways in 2010. Twenty-eight percent of small business owners say they plan to spend more on online video in 2010, up 75% over last year’s plans. Twenty five percent say the same about social networking, while 21% plan to commit more resources to mobile advertising.

Earlier this week, I highlighted releases by several large agencies that predicted a grim 2010 ad market in the U.S. and improving conditions outside the U.S. As usual, there’s more to the story. An article in Ad Age last week highlighted some of the details. Laurel Wentz reported that when it comes to overall ad spending, global marketers spent 38% of measured media in the U.S. which equated to $46.3 billion. The remaining 62% was spent elsewhere.

According to several industry watchers, the global ad market appears ready to stabilize in 2010. This growth is largely related to the improving economies of emerging markets such as South America and Asia Pacific. Ad industry revenue generally lags behind economic recoveries, so in the U.S., tepid or no growth may be the general trend for 2010.

Despite the common wisdom that higher ad budgets translate to more sales, 58% of B to B marketers cut their promotional budgets in 2009. Categories that fared the worst included events and print, both cut by 63% of BtoB Online’s 2010 Outlook Survey respondents. Not surprisingly, over 8 in 10 of these businesses increased online spending in 2009. What do these businesses plan to do when it comes to 2010 marketing?