Marketing Forecast from Ad-ology

While industry experts have been predicting a general recovery in the U.S. ad market this year, Anthony J. DiClemente, a New York-based analyst with Barclays gets specific. In his latest forecast, DiClemente is looking for an overall 3.5% rise in this sector. DiClemente links sporting events such as the Olympics and the World Cup to a projected 7.8% rise in the national TV market.

In yesterday’s blog, I discussed MarketingSherpa’s study on the maturation of social media. Along with social media, the entire online marketing industry continues to grow and is predicted to reach $55 billion or 21% of all ad spending by 2014. And, as I mentioned yesterday, funding the new initiatives comes at the expense of budgets previously allocated for traditional media. How bad is the damage to traditional media? Forrester Research has assembled some specific numbers in its Interactive Marketing Projections study released last year.

Local TV and radio station operators have some small reasons to cheer about in 2010. The business outlook is predicted to remain difficult but analysts expect gains of between 2 and 3% in these industries this year. Where will the gains be realized? Writing for Mediaweek, Katy Bachman compiled the following information.

As marketers take stock of their position and what they’ve learned from the recession, some companies will be changing their ad strategies. In other words, they’ll be looking to produce less expensive ads for those expensive broadcast media pitches and looking for way to more effectively snag consumer attention. Here are a few highlights from a recent Wall Street Journal article on this topic:

To all the marketers who think they are saving money while increasing ad effectiveness via online media channels, MIT Sloan Assistant Professor Alessandro Bonatti has a message for you: Not so fast. Bonatti and co-researcher, Yale-based Dirk Bergemann agree that online advertising allows marketers to target specific demographic groups efficiently. However, in highly competitive industries, many marketers may end up chasing the same group of customers.

Technology experts believe the next industry transformation will occur in the mobile Internet segment. Morgan Stanley analysts expect this segment to possess the transformative power that accompanied other major tech launches such as Microsoft’s Windows 3.0 or Apple’s iPhone. The business environment is a bit different this time around but large fortunes will be won and lost as giant companies battle for market share and revenue.