Marketing Forecast from Ad-ology

Global uncertainty can have a negative effect on the U.S. economy and advertising industry. Analysts have been watching both the catastrophe in Japan and the continued unrest in the Middle East and are trying to predict the impact on U.S. marketers. Researchers see downward pressure on the global ad market and project a small drop from previous estimates. Global spending is now expected to rise only 4.2% this year, to a total of $470.8 billion.

A close look at the numbers that have been tallied up for 2010 can tell us about the recovery in the ad market. The numbers can also indicate what marketers think about which media channels deserve a higher percentage of the ad budget. Most experts have been impressed with the rapid growth of the online ad sector. But eMarketer analysts suggest that this channel should gain even more of the ad dollar to match the amount of time consumers spend online.

Newspaper execs know they have a problem with their traditional printed product. Readership and circulation continue to decline. During the early part of the recession, it looked like the digital strategy for many newspapers was in trouble as well. But the latest figures from the Newspaper Association of America show that revenue from digital advertising is on the upswing for newspaper publishers.

The hype surrounding social media might lead some marketing industry observers to believe that major brands are backing away from advertising on TV. In a well-publicized experiment, Pepsi pulled back from TV advertising, especially large events like the Super Bowl. Now that the firm has lost market share, it is planning to invest more in TV advertising. And it’s not the only company looking to connect with consumers through the TV channel.

At the recent ILM East conference in Boston, BIA/Kelsey analysts described how the local online and mobile ad formats will grow between now and 2015. Analysts argue these channels can handle what traditional media does – text, audio, video, voice and data. These effects will be especially impressive when the 4G wireless devices become more mainstream. In addition, implementing offerings in the online and mobile local world, for now, will be easier because there are few barriers to entry. Competitors in these fields do not have huge regulatory barriers and they do not face expensive investments in physical printing plants.

Now that the final numbers from 2010 have been counted and analyzed, research shops are able to establish just how much the ad market has recovered. Analysts can also tell marketers which channels are growing the fastest. And based on this data, we can generate accurate predictions about where 2011 is headed.