Marketing Forecast from Ad-ology

Back-to-school season is right around the corner. But this year, consumers under the age of 21 might not be the only ones working on their reading, writing and math skills. The latest American Management Association survey finds that businesses require excellence in basic skills along with other competencies that fewer employees seem to have these days.

Unemployed Americans have been hearing for years that the path to a stable career can be found in the health care industry. The Department of Labor routinely advises that over 3 million jobs will be created in this sector in the next 8 years. Despite this positive news, almost half of surveyed high school students – the group that will make up the next generation of employees – do not plan to study for a career in health care or science.

According to new research from Alloy Media + Marketing, a historic number of students will go to college this Fall, carrying with them an unprecedented and immense $306 billion in projected spending power – up 13% since 2009′s estimates. And, while overall non-discretionary expenses are on the rise, it’s this consumer group’s discretionary spend that is particularly revealing. Showing a projected 10% increase since last year, the 18-34 year old college set continues to display a penchant for what they deem “must haves”, with annual discretionary spending figures rising to an estimated $69 billion, representing a substantial hike from 2009. “From sheer population growth, compounded with notable spending hikes in key discretionary categories, college students’ ever-increasing consumer power is undeniable. The annual College Explorer Study definitively reiterates the importance this group holds for brands aiming to gain long term loyalty, and should serve as the marketer’s essential guide to navigating the modern campus and its inhabitants’ unique behaviors.”

Consumers concerned about their ability to find good-paying jobs are turning to educational institutions to sharpen their skills and improve their attractiveness to employers. During the recession start year of 2008, colleges, universities and trade school saw a 6% increase in freshmen enrollment. An enrollment jump during a recessionary period is not new, but what has changed this time around is the demographic composition of the freshmen classes.

Moms are cutting back on their back-to-school shopping this upcoming season, according to a new survey by the Marketing to Moms Coalition. The 2010 Back to School Report, which analyzed responses from 1,275 moms nationwide with children ages 2 to 17 years, projected that spending is expected to decrease 10% for kids ages 7 to 12 years, and 12% for teenagers ages 13 to 17 years. Overall, moms of 7- to 12-year-olds reported average spending of $440 for 2010, compared with $487 in 2009. Moms of teenagers 13 to 17 years will spend $479, compared with $548 last year.

If there’s one statistic that many economist find sobering, it’s the high unemployment rate among students who have failed to complete their high school education. Once students drop out of school, many fail to pursue further education. And this trend leads to a lifelong earnings gap when these consumers are compared to those who possess higher educations.