Marketing Forecast from Ad-ology

Marketers have traditionally allocated their ad budgets based on the audience reach and price. For many years, cable operators delivered a growing and often targeted audience at a good price. But the latest data on cable TV viewership may have some marketers raising their eyebrows.

The latest 2012 ad spending forecasts are in. As usual, there’s no agreement on exactly how much ad budgets will increase this year. But, most forecasters agree on the macro changes in the ad market – both TV and online are trending up.

Media companies may be holding their breath about the future. After the ad market came roaring back in Q4 2010, the growth rate steadily dropped throughout 2011. In Q4 2011, the ad spending growth rate fell into negative territory. While 2012 is expected to be a good year because of the Olympics and the elections, there is concern about the future.

Now that the final numbers are in for 2011, media companies are hoping ad sales will grow faster this year. The latest research suggests this will be the case but some of the largest ad jumps will occur outside the U.S.

Out of home advertising seems to be continuing the strong recovery it started shortly after the economy pulled out of recession. In reporting the year-end figures for 2011, industry officials noted that the format has been growing for the past 7 quarters. In addition, officials at the Outdoor Advertising Association of America (OAAA) say 2012 should be a positive year.

In one of yesterday’s posts, I described how major advertiser are relying more on TV to reach their audiences. Many marketers believe that new technology advances for the TV platform will improve the effectiveness of their messaging and that a significant disruption is right around the corner. These technologies, such as over-the-top (OTT) viewing, was the subject of a new Deloitte study which hints that the TV revolution may take a while to arrive.